1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings
This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 16.5% ($ weighted). There was an average mark-up of 17.8% (equal weighted).
CelLink experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Long Wall (ABL Space), SambaNova and Snorkel AI. AI & Machine Learning, CloudTech & DevOps and Data ∓ Analytics saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.
Empower Semi experienced the most significant mark-down as funds wrote down their positions. Signifyd, Blockdaemon and Outrider also saw significant mark-downs. Among sectors, BioTech, Crypto & Blockchain, and EdTech saw the most significant mark-downs.
| Companies | Robustness Score3 | ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Neuralink | 7 | +239.70% |
| Blockdaemon | 1 | +123.20% |
| Applied Intuition | 1 | +108.10% |
| Celonis | 2 | +103.80% |
| Zipline | 2 | +62.50% |
| Diamond Foundry | 1 | +61.70% |
| Anduril | 6 | +56.40% |
| Anthropic | 7 | +45.00% |
| Dataminr | 2 | +41.90% |
| Ayar Labs | 6 | +34.10% |
| Radiant Nuclear | 1 | +34.00% |
| Lambda Labs | 7 | +29.30% |
| Lightmatter | 6 | +26.50% |
| Perplexity AI | 4 | +12.00% |
| Shield AI | 2 | +8.60% |
| Discord | 3 | +7.00% |
| Tenstorrent | 3 | +6.10% |
| OpenAI | 6 | +5.80% |
| Databricks | 2 | +5.30% |
| Stripe | 8 | +4.00% |
| Gusto | 1 | +2.80% |
| Replit | 2 | +0.90% |
| Redwood Materials | 2 | -1.90% |
| Bolt | 1 | -3.50% |
| Apptronik | 1 | -4.80% |
| Revolut | 4 | -5.20% |
| Crusoe Energy | 4 | -5.80% |
| Canva | 3 | -7.50% |
| Figure AI | 6 | -8.90% |
| Epic Games | 1 | -10.10% |
| VAST Data | 3 | -10.20% |
| Flock Safety | 1 | -11.60% |
| KoBold Metals | 1 | -20.10% |
| Oura Health | 1 | -27.70% |
| Kalshi | 4 | -32.30% |
| Arctic Wolf | 1 | -34.30% |
| PsiQuantum | 2 | -35.40% |
| Snyk | 2 | -38.40% |
| SambaNova | 1 | -43.50% |
| Axiom Space | 2 | -44.40% |
| Fanatics | 1 | -46.10% |
| SandboxAQ | 4 | -50.90% |
3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.
In September, 36% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 45% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Neuralink, Blockdaemon and Applied Intuition had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. SandboxAQ, Fanatics and Axiom Space had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.
| Company | Normalized Std Dev5 | $ Weighted Avg | Max | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cybereason | .63 | $0.66 | $1.74 | $0.50 |
| Form Energy | .43 | $16.14 | $24.18 | $9.71 |
| Superhuman (Grammarly) | .33 | $16.06 | $25.60 | $13.10 |
| Menlo Micro | .33 | $0.65 | $1.10 | $0.55 |
| MasterClass | .27 | $1.92 | $2.54 | $1.50 |
5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.
This period Cybereason ($0.50 - $1.74) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Form Energy ($9.71- $24.18) and Superhuman (Grammarly) ($13.10 - $25.60).
6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
Sila Nano saw its first positive reversal in eighteen quarters while Benchling and Treeline Bio saw their first positive reversals in six quarters. Neon saw its first negative reversal in seven quarters while Loadsmart, PsiQuantum, Radiant Nuclear and Redwood Materials all saw their first negative reversals in four quarters.
This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $110+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.
The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.
Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report September not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.
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