1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings
This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 34.6% ($ weighted). The appreciation of SpaceX was the main contributor to the mark up, as it’s widely held across funds. There was an average mark-up of 7.3% (equal weighted) across all fund holdings.
Cerebras experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Astranis, SpaceX and Groq. Aerospace & Defense, Logistics & Transportation, and AI & Machine Learning saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.
Lessen experienced the most significant mark-down, as funds wrote off their positions. Enevate, Noodle and MasterClass also experienced significant mark downs. Among sectors, Cybersecurity, EdTech and Crypto & Blockchain saw the largest mark-downs.
| Companies | Robustness Score3 | ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Anduril | 7 | +114.40% |
| Freenome | 1 | +87.20% |
| Applied Intuition | 3 | +65.10% |
| Stripe | 7 | +54.00% |
| Lambda Labs | 3 | +43.20% |
| Ayar Labs | 1 | +41.70% |
| Algolia | 1 | +40.10% |
| Moloco | 1 | +39.60% |
| Lightmatter | 1 | +39.40% |
| Neuralink | 6 | +39.20% |
| OpenAI | 7 | +38.30% |
| Dataminr | 1 | +34.60% |
| Celonis | 3 | +34.50% |
| Anthropic | 7 | +34.40% |
| SpaceX | 8 | +25.60% |
| Revolut | 2 | +23.10% |
| Bytedance | 6 | +21.10% |
| Canva | 2 | +18.60% |
| Cerebras | 6 | +16.60% |
| Crusoe Energy | 6 | +15.30% |
| Flexport | 1 | +12.80% |
| Discord | 3 | +5.90% |
| Databricks | 2 | +3.30% |
| Plaid | 1 | -2.80% |
| Replit | 2 | -3.40% |
| Gusto | 1 | -4.00% |
| Figure AI | 6 | -4.60% |
| Apptronik | 3 | -5.30% |
| Shield AI | 4 | -7.00% |
| Bolt | 2 | -9.70% |
| Perplexity AI | 6 | -11.20% |
| SandboxAQ | 1 | -12.30% |
| SambaNova | 1 | -14.60% |
| Redwood Materials | 1 | -15.40% |
| Zipline | 6 | -18.40% |
| Superhuman (Grammarly) | 1 | -19.10% |
| PsiQuantum | 3 | -21.30% |
| Blockdaemon | 1 | -23.60% |
| KoBold Metals | 1 | -24.10% |
| goPuff | 1 | -24.80% |
| Epic Games | 2 | -30.00% |
| Arctic Wolf | 2 | -31.60% |
| Fanatics | 4 | -31.80% |
| Checkr | 1 | -40.10% |
| Groq | 1 | -40.30% |
| Oura Health | 1 | -44.10% |
| Astranis | 1 | -46.00% |
| Snyk | 1 | -58.30% |
3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.
In March, 19% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 40% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Anduril, Freenome and Applied Intuition had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. Snyk, Astranis and Oura Health had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.
| Company | Normalized Std Dev5 | $ Weighted Avg | Max | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xsight Labs | .39 | $3.30 | $4.20 | $1.50 |
| Superhuman (Grammarly) | .33 | $16.06 | $25.60 | $13.10 |
| MasterClass | .26 | $2.00 | $2.63 | $1.56 |
| Figure AI | .24 | $155.89 | $194.93 | $120.91 |
| Jetti Resources | .22 | $120.24 | $132.84 | $66.67 |
5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.
This period Xsight Labs ($1.50 - $4.20) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Superhuman (Grammarly) ($13.10 - $25.60) and MasterClass ($1.56 - $2.63).
6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
Rappi saw its first positive reversal in sixteen quarters while Superhuman (Grammarly) saw its first positive reversal in fifteen quarters. Bolt saw its first negative reversal in seven quarters while Tenstorrent saw its first negative reversal in four quarters.
This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $85+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.
The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.
Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.
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