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ZX Data private stock trade

Executive Summary

  • This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 6.4% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 6.7% (equal weighted). The period saw two advancing companies for every declining company.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:
  • In December, 32% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 53% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks.

Heat Map: October 31st, 2025 Reporting Period

6.4%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

6.7%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
Figure AI
729.9%
Crusoe Energy
175.8%
Apptronik
113.7%
Ayar Labs
62.7%
Lambda Labs
54.2%
Radiant Nuclear
53.3%
Hammerspace
37.4%
Lime
36.5%
Databricks
34.2%
Treeline Bio
33.6%
KoBold Metals
32.5%
HawkEye 360
31.7%
Redwood Materials
30.8%
Zipline
29.8%
Revolut
26.9%
PsiQuantum
26.5%
JUUL
26.3%
Fabletics
23.5%
Wasabi Technologies
20.7%
Oura Health
20.6%
EndeavorBio
18.8%
Wugen
18.0%
Versa Networks
17.5%
Canva
16.2%
Ursa
15.4%
Neuralink
15.2%
Discord
13.6%
Bytedance
13.5%
Verge Genomics
12.5%
Celestial AI
12.4%
Diamond Foundry
11.5%
OneTrust
11.5%
Menlo Micro
10.9%
Perplexity AI
10.9%
Castle Creek
10.5%
Included Health (Grand Rounds)
10.1%
Waymo
9.9%
Neurona Therapeutics
9.7%
Evozyne
9.4%
Retym
9.3%
Mythical
9.0%
Sonoma Bio
8.7%
Stripe
8.6%
Runway AI
7.8%
Anduril
7.6%
Valsoft
7.2%
Druva
7.0%
Lilac Solutions
6.8%
Teya (SaltPay)
6.7%
Tenstorrent
6.5%
Nuro
6.3%
Tula Tech
6.1%
Moloco
5.7%
Boom Supersonic
5.3%
Axiom Space
5.2%
Bright Peak
5.0%
Bolt
4.5%
Sortera Tech
4.5%
Empower Semi
4.4%
ClearMotion
3.9%
MasterClass
3.8%
RapidSOS
3.6%
Meesho
3.5%
Noodle
2.9%
Blink Health
2.8%
Aiven
2.6%
Arctic Wolf
2.4%
SiMa ai
2.1%
Neon
1.7%
Generate Bio
1.4%
Relation Therapeutics
1.2%
Loadsmart
1.0%
Rapyd
1.0%
Anthropic
0.8%
KRY
0.8%
Flock Safety
0.5%
Freenome
0.5%
Outrider
0.5%
Akeana
0.4%
Tanium
0.4%
Xsight Labs
0.4%
Celonis
0.3%
Alif Semi
0.2%
Checkr
0.1%
Element Labs
0.1%
Tory Burch
0.1%
A24 Films
0.0%
ABL Space
0.0%
Cybereason
0.0%
Deep Instinct
0.0%
Fanatics
0.0%
Form Energy
0.0%
Impulse Dynamics
0.0%
Jetti Resources
0.0%
JumpCloud
0.0%
LifeMine
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
Replit
0.0%
Savage X
0.0%
Sila Nano
0.0%
Snyk
0.0%
Source
0.0%
SpaceX
0.0%
VideoAmp
0.0%
xAI
0.0%
Caidya (dMed)
-0.1%
VAST Data
-0.1%
Verily
-0.1%
Gusto
-0.4%
YuLife
-0.5%
CelLink
-0.8%
Skyryse
-0.8%
VerAI
-0.8%
Frore Systems
-1.0%
goPuff
-1.0%
OpenAI
-1.0%
Plaid
-1.3%
SandboxAQ
-1.3%
Applied Intuition
-1.5%
Flexport
-2.1%
Andpad
-2.2%
Sortium
-2.9%
Newsela
-3.5%
GupShup
-3.6%
Signifyd
-4.2%
Algolia
-4.4%
Epic Games
-4.6%
Smule
-5.1%
Benchling
-5.7%
Shield AI
-6.8%
Starling Bank
-7.6%
Breeze Airways
-8.1%
Dataminr
-9.1%
Ant Group
-10.1%
Blockdaemon
-11.7%
Enevate
-12.9%
Grammarly
-13.7%
Astranis
-15.3%
GOAT
-16.4%
Bright Machines
-16.6%
Lightmatter
-17.4%
Snorkel AI
-19.8%
Farmers Business Network
-20.9%
SambaNova
-47.4%
T-Knife
-49.3%
Lessen
-52.6%
FiNC
-60.9%
Rad Power
-98.8%
FLYR
-100.0%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 6.4% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 6.7% (equal weighted). The period saw two advancing companies for every declining company.

Figure AI experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Crusoe Energy, Apptronik and Ayar Labs. Robotics & Humanoids, CleanTech, and CloudTech & DevOps saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.

FLYR experienced the most significant mark-down as funds wrote off their positions. Rad Power, FiNC and Lessen also experienced significant mark-downs. Among sectors, Crypto & Blockchain, BioTech and EdTech saw the largest mark-downs.

Comparison of ZX Index Value vs. Fund Marks

CompaniesRobustness Score3ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks
SpaceX7+102.80%
VAST Data2+95.80%
Anduril8+95.60%
xAI7+74.40%
Anthropic8+59.70%
Lambda Labs3+53.40%
OpenAI4+46.80%
Applied Intuition2+41.50%
Figure AI3+36.20%
Crusoe Energy8+34.80%
Blink Health1+33.70%
Databricks6+26.60%
Stripe2+25.50%
Flexport1+19.40%
Neuralink6+18.70%
Algolia1+18.20%
Astranis2+17.90%
Freenome1+16.10%
Revolut4+12.60%
Shield AI6+11.20%
Canva3+10.70%
Moloco1+9.30%
Dataminr2+6.90%
SandboxAQ2+3.80%
SambaNova1+3.50%
Redwood Materials5+1.70%
Waymo2+1.60%
Replit2+1.50%
Bolt1-1.10%
goPuff1-1.50%
Cerebras5-1.60%
Tenstorrent2-4.10%
Apptronik5-5.30%
Lightmatter6-5.40%
Discord5-5.50%
Perplexity AI3-8.50%
Bytedance4-9.20%
Plaid1-9.90%
Grammarly1-12.20%
Fanatics6-17.50%
Celonis2-18.40%
Gusto2-21.20%
PsiQuantum3-26.90%
KoBold Metals1-27.00%
Zipline5-29.90%
Blockdaemon2-30.90%
Arctic Wolf2-33.10%
Flock Safety1-33.30%
Rapyd1-33.40%
Epic Games2-34.80%
Checkr1-41.20%
Oura Health2-46.40%
Snyk2-58.30%

3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.

In December, 32% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 53% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, SpaceX, VAST Data, Anduril and xAI had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. Snyk, Oura Health, Checkr and Epic Games had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.

Highest Variance in Reported Marks
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Smule2.74$1.08$11.16$0.21
Cybereason.60$0.63$1.74$0.50
Xsight Labs.42$3.28$4.23$1.29
Grammarly.40$14.80$25.31$11.54
Celonis.31$268.67$369.79$197.71

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

This period, Smule ($0.21 - $11.16) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Cybereason ($0.50 - $1.74) and Xsight Labs ($1.29 - $4.23).

Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Druva
7
Lilac Solutions
6
Neon
6
Mythical
5
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
SandboxAQ
12
Gusto
8
Shield AI
7
Epic Games
5

6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Druva saw its first positive reversal in seven quarters while Lilac Solutions and Neon saw their first positive reversals in six quarters. SandboxAQ saw its first negative reversal in twelve quarters while Gusto saw its first negative reversal in eight quarters.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $73+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.

The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.

Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report December not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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