1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings
This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 42.6% ($ weighted), the largest appreciation since inception of the newsletter. The appreciation of SpaceX and Anthropic were the main contributors to the mark up, as they are widely held across funds. There was an average mark-up of 21.6% (equal weighted) across all fund holdings.
Excluding SpaceX and Anthropic from the calculations, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 16.7% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 16.4% (equal weighted).
Nscale experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by VAST Data, SpaceX and Cerebras. Aerospace & Defense, Logistics & Transportation, and Fintech saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.
Faraday Pharma experienced the most significant mark-down, as funds wrote off their positions. Color Genomics, Verily and HaulHub also experienced significant mark downs. Among sectors, SaaS, Semiconductors and FoodTech saw the largest mark-downs.
| Companies | Robustness Score3 | ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Dataminr | 2 | +74.70% |
| Anthropic | 7 | +68.60% |
| Applied Intuition | 2 | +68.30% |
| Anduril | 7 | +63.90% |
| Lightmatter | 4 | +61.80% |
| Algolia | 1 | +61.10% |
| Checkr | 1 | +57.10% |
| Moloco | 1 | +56.40% |
| Crusoe Energy | 3 | +47.70% |
| Cerebras | 8 | +33.50% |
| Bytedance | 2 | +32.70% |
| Revolut | 2 | +23.10% |
| Discord | 2 | +17.90% |
| Canva | 8 | +17.10% |
| Databricks | 2 | +9.80% |
| Einride | 1 | +8.90% |
| Stripe | 7 | +6.20% |
| OpenAI | 7 | +3.10% |
| SpaceX | 7 | +1.90% |
| Gusto | 6 | +0.00% |
| Bolt | 1 | -0.80% |
| PsiQuantum | 3 | -8.20% |
| goPuff | 1 | -8.40% |
| VAST Data | 2 | -12.90% |
| Redwood Materials | 1 | -15.60% |
| SambaNova | 1 | -17.30% |
| Zipline | 2 | -18.40% |
| Superhuman (Grammarly) | 1 | -19.50% |
| Epic Games | 2 | -20.80% |
| KoBold Metals | 1 | -23.90% |
| Arctic Wolf | 2 | -28.80% |
| Snyk | 1 | -31.30% |
| Fanatics | 1 | -37.80% |
| Oura Health | 1 | -52.30% |
| Astranis | 1 | -55.80% |
| Groq | 1 | -58.90% |
3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.
In April, 25% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 44% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Dataminr, Anthropic and Applied Intuition had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. Groq, Astranis and Oura Health had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.
| Company | Normalized Std Dev5 | $ Weighted Avg | Max | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resilience | .53 | $5.12 | $21.87 | $3.97 |
| Nuro | .51 | $7.98 | $15.29 | $5.45 |
| Xsight Labs | .46 | $2.95 | $4.20 | $1.50 |
| Superhuman (Grammarly) | .33 | $16.06 | $25.60 | $13.10 |
| Verily | .27 | $9.05 | $33.06 | $8.80 |
5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.
This period Resilience ($3.97 - $21.87) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Nuro ($5.45 - $15.29) and Xsight Labs ($1.50 - $4.20).
6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
GupShup saw its first positive reversal in seventeen quarters while Superhuman (Grammarly) saw its first positive reversal in nine quarters. Bolt saw its first negative reversal in eight quarters while Checkr and Moloco saw their first negative reversals in seven quarters.
This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $95+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.
The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.
Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.
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