1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings
This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 11.1% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 5.4% (equal weighted). The period saw two advancing companies for every declining company
Crusoe Energy experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Galvanize, Anthropic and Element Labs. SaaS, AI & Machine Learning and Aerospace & Defense saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.
PrognomIQ experienced the most significant mark-down, followed by HaulHub, Resilience and Rad Power. Among sectors, BioTech, Data & Analytics and Marketing Tech saw the largest mark-downs.
| Companies | Robustness Score3 | ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Color Genomics | 2 | +219.00% |
| VAST Data | 2 | +110.80% |
| Freenome | 1 | +109.00% |
| Anduril | 8 | +104.10% |
| Sila Nano | 1 | +68.70% |
| Redwood Materials | 6 | +65.00% |
| Crusoe Energy | 7 | +55.00% |
| Stripe | 7 | +41.30% |
| Blink Health | 1 | +33.70% |
| Dataminr | 1 | +28.70% |
| xAI | 8 | +28.10% |
| Revolut | 3 | +26.50% |
| Databricks | 7 | +18.20% |
| Anthropic | 7 | +17.40% |
| Moloco | 2 | +15.00% |
| Waymo | 1 | +12.60% |
| Discord | 2 | +10.70% |
| Lightmatter | 2 | +9.90% |
| Canva | 2 | +9.70% |
| Bytedance | 3 | +7.10% |
| Tenstorrent | 6 | +6.00% |
| Cross River | 1 | +2.90% |
| SpaceX | 6 | +2.60% |
| Bolt | 1 | -1.40% |
| KoBold Metals | 1 | -2.40% |
| goPuff | 1 | -2.50% |
| Meesho | 1 | -6.90% |
| Gusto | 2 | -8.80% |
| Astranis | 2 | -9.90% |
| Einride | 2 | -14.60% |
| PsiQuantum | 2 | -17.60% |
| Algolia | 1 | -18.80% |
| Arctic Wolf | 2 | -20.30% |
| Epirus | 1 | -23.50% |
| Rapyd | 1 | -24.20% |
| Grammarly | 2 | -24.30% |
| Fanatics | 1 | -25.90% |
| Zipline | 3 | -32.20% |
| JUUL | 1 | -35.10% |
| Snyk | 1 | -35.20% |
| Epic Games | 5 | -35.30% |
| Liquid Death | 2 | -35.90% |
| VideoAmp | 1 | -36.60% |
| Oura Health | 2 | -40.90% |
| SambaNova | 1 | -44.70% |
3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.
In October, 27% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 44% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Color Genomics, VAST Data, Freenome and Anduril had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. SambaNova, Oura Health, VideoAmp and Liquid Death had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.
| Company | Normalized Std Dev5 | $ Weighted Avg | Max | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PrognomIQ | .61 | $0.08 | $0.32 | $0.07 |
| Xsight Labs | .46 | $3.11 | $4.23 | $1.29 |
| Rad Power | .44 | $0.09 | $0.14 | $0.05 |
| DNA Script | .39 | $195.39 | $230.45 | $28.35 |
| Nuro | .39 | $7.63 | $12.96 | $5.72 |
5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.
This period, PrognomIQ ($0.07 - $0.32) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Xsight Labs ($1.29 - $4.23) and Rad Power ($0.05 - $0.14).
6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
Galvanize saw its first positive reversal in twelve quarters while FogPharma (Parabilis) saw its first positive reversal in eight quarters. Fabletics saw its first negative reversal in thirteen quarters while Skyryse saw its first negative reversal in five quarters.
This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $70+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.
The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.
Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report October not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.
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