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ZX Data private stock trade

Executive Summary

  • This quarter, reporting holders marked down their private portfolios by 7.0% ($ weighted) with an average mark-down of 12.1% (equal weighted). The period saw nearly four companies declining for every advancing company.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:
  • In December, the gap between Fund Marks and ZX Index Values remained significant, with 84% of ZX Index companies showing a difference of 5% or more compared to Fund Marks.

Heat Map: October 31st, 2023 Reporting Period

-7.0%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

-12.1%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
Bolt Threads
481.6%
Enevate
37.7%
Lime
24.2%
Arctic Wolf
19.7%
Databricks
19.0%
Relativity Space
15.5%
Canva
13.8%
Fabletics
12.6%
VideoAmp
10.4%
GupShup
9.7%
Swiggy
8.8%
Illumio
7.4%
ClearMotion
7.3%
Waymo
5.6%
Tanium
3.4%
A24 Films
3.3%
Grammarly
3.3%
Ant Financial
3.2%
Smule
3.1%
Lacework
2.6%
Deep Instinct
1.6%
Bowery
1.1%
Resilience
0.9%
SpaceX
0.1%
Blaize
0.0%
Cadre
0.0%
Carta
0.0%
Chainalysis
0.0%
Cross River
0.0%
Cybereason
0.0%
Envoy
0.0%
Figma
0.0%
Figure Technologies
0.0%
Gusto
0.0%
Harness
0.0%
Headspace
0.0%
Highspot
0.0%
Houzz
0.0%
KoBold Metals
0.0%
Liquid Death
0.0%
MadHive
0.0%
Moloco
0.0%
Nuro
0.0%
Patreon
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
Redwood Materials
0.0%
SandboxAQ
0.0%
Scale AI
0.0%
Shipbob
0.0%
Sila Nano
0.0%
Snyk
0.0%
ThoughtSpot
0.0%
Thrasio
0.0%
Verge Genomics
0.0%
Whoop
0.0%
Magic Leap
-0.2%
SiMa ai
-0.2%
Sonoma Bio
-0.3%
Astranis
-0.4%
JumpCloud
-0.4%
Wugen
-0.4%
Newsela
-0.5%
Skyryse
-0.5%
GOAT
-0.9%
Wasabi Technologies
-1.5%
Optoro
-1.6%
Blink Health
-1.7%
Bytedance
-2.1%
Tula Tech
-2.3%
Essence Group
-2.5%
PsiQuantum
-2.6%
Lightmatter
-2.7%
Versa Networks
-3.5%
Checkr
-3.8%
Lilac Solutions
-3.8%
Circle
-4.4%
Neon
-4.4%
Druva
-4.6%
Fanatics
-4.7%
Signifyd
-4.7%
Retym
-4.9%
Savage X
-4.9%
Stripe
-5.3%
YuLife
-5.3%
Boundless Bio
-5.9%
Astera Labs
-6.0%
Talkdesk
-6.4%
Menlo Micro
-6.6%
Noodle
-6.6%
Delphix
-7.2%
MasterClass
-8.6%
Epic Games
-8.8%
Bolt
-9.8%
Lookout
-9.8%
Treeline Bio
-10.1%
Tenstorrent
-10.2%
Bright Peak
-11.2%
OneTrust
-11.3%
Alif Semi
-11.5%
Diamond Foundry
-12.0%
Chime
-12.1%
Reddit
-12.2%
Dataminr
-12.9%
Impulse Dynamics
-13.6%
Rapyd
-13.9%
Exo Imaging
-14.3%
ABL Space
-14.4%
Evozyne
-14.6%
MOD Pizza
-15.2%
Snorkel AI
-16.4%
Celonis
-17.1%
Castle Creek
-17.3%
Meesho
-17.8%
Tory Burch
-18.1%
LifeMine
-19.6%
Discord
-19.9%
Starling Bank
-20.2%
Pine Labs
-20.6%
T-Knife
-20.8%
Loadsmart
-20.9%
MNTN
-21.6%
Xsight Labs
-21.7%
CelLink
-22.2%
Breeze Airways
-22.7%
SambaNova
-22.7%
Algolia
-23.8%
X Holdings
-23.8%
BETA Technologies
-24.8%
Caidya (dMed)
-24.8%
Caris
-25.2%
Zero Mass Water
-28.1%
Benchling
-29.5%
Tempus Labs
-30.9%
KRY
-35.0%
Volocopter
-36.8%
Teya (SaltPay)
-39.3%
Ursa
-51.7%
IL Makiage
-52.1%
BYJU's
-53.2%
goPuff
-55.1%
Rad Power
-69.8%
Phononic
-78.3%
JUUL
-85.3%
Farmers Business Network
-89.1%
AgBiome
-96.8%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

This quarter, reporting holders marked down their private portfolios by 7.0% ($ weighted) with an average mark-down of 12.1% (equal weighted). The period saw nearly four companies declining for every advancing company.

Bolt Threads experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Enevate, Lime and Arctic Wolf. Media & Entertainment and AI & Machine Learning saw the only mark-ups across sectors.

AgBiome experienced the most significant mark-down, while Farmers Business Network, JUUL, Phononic and Rad Power also experienced notable mark-downs. Among the sectors, AgTech, FinTech, and EdTech saw the largest mark-downs.

Comparison of ZX Index Value vs. Fund Marks

CompaniesZX Index Value vs. Fund Marks
Figma+84.70%
Intercom+83.80%
Algolia+41.50%
6Sense+38.50%
Scale AI+36.40%
Whoop+23.10%
Stripe+22.80%
Dataminr+20.70%
Benchling+18.20%
GupShup+14.20%
Loadsmart+11.40%
Phenom+10.70%
Carta+10.40%
Harness+7.70%
Astera Labs+7.70%
SpaceX+7.40%
Gusto+7.10%
Canva+5.40%
Tekion+4.50%
Circle+4.50%
Druva+4.00%
Discord+2.70%
Cohesity-0.10%
Cross River-1.20%
Redwood Materials-1.60%
Moloco-3.90%
Diamond Foundry-5.80%
Databricks-7.80%
ThoughtSpot-8.40%
Reddit-11.40%
Chainalysis-11.50%
Tanium-12.40%
Fanatics-18.30%
Relativity Space-21.00%
OneTrust-21.00%
Flexport-22.40%
Highspot-23.20%
Lookout-26.80%
Lightmatter-28.50%
Epic Games-31.50%
Patreon-31.80%
Celonis-37.60%
Arctic Wolf-41.80%
Bytedance-46.20%
Snyk-48.60%
Chime-59.00%
VideoAmp-59.20%
Cart.com-59.60%
SambaNova-60.20%
Illumio-71.50%

In December, the gap between Fund Marks and ZX Index Values remained significant, with 84% of ZX Index companies showing a difference of 5% or more compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Figma, Intercom and Algolia had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. Illumio, SambaNova and Cart.com had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.

Highest Variance in Reported Marks
CompanyNormalized Std Dev3$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Phononic2.98$0.24$4.16$0.07
Smule1.24$2.71$14.18$1.67
BYJU’s.84$379.14$971.17$209.58
Farmers Business Network.44$4.64$19.21$4.35
Rad Power.39$0.57$0.85$0.35

3 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

This period, Phononic ($0.07 - $4.16) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Smule ($1.67 - $14.18) and BYJU's ($2.09 - $971.17).

Positive Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal5 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Bolt Threads
8
Bowery
8
Waymo
8
Celonis
7
Negative Trend Reversal5 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Druva
10
Lilac Solutions, Pine Labs
7
Bytedance, MOD Pizza
5
Evozyne, Sonoma Bio
5

4 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
5 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Bolt Threads, Bowery and Waymo all saw their first positive reversals in two years while Celonis saw its first positive reversal in seven quarters. Druva saw its first negative reversal in ten quarters while Lilac Solutions and Pine Labs saw their first negative reversal in seven quarters.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 270+ funds and $47 billion+ of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.

The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.

Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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