Executive Summary

Reported Holdings as of January 31st, 2020:

  • Reporting period is likely the last before COVID-19 impact on global economy began being priced-in
  • Sentiment up: DraftKings, Tanium, Taboola
  • Sentiment down: Rubicon Global, Sweetgreen, JUUL
  • Sector Spotlight: Information Security firms Tanium, Malwarebytes among top gainers; Lookout modestly marked up with preferred shares trading in narrow range while common stock valued significantly lower.

ZX Market Update since January 31st, 2020:

  • ZX pricing levels have fallen since January 31st as the market works to price COVID-19 impact
  • Investors evaluating opportunity on a company-by-company basis
  • Pockets of strength being seen in Payments, Enterprise SaaS, and Edtech

Other companies mentioned in this report: Allbirds, Circle, Clover Health, Coupang, Coursera, Databricks, Deliveroo, Impossible Foods, Ripple, Reddit, SpaceX, Stripe, The Honest Company, Wish

About ZX Monthly Movers

Based on data reported by 194 funds, ZX Monthly Movers summarizes notable movements in holding values of venture-backed private companies as reported by shareholders subject to reporting requirements.* Period-to-period comparisons are measured quarterly to coincide with reporting intervals.

ZX is the Zanbato Alternative Trading System. A ZX Firm Order is explained at the end of ZX Monthly Movers.

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings1

+4.4%

Appreciation/
Depreciation of All Reported Holdings2

+1.8%

Largest % Mark-Up
DraftKings
+42.5%
Tanium
+28.8%
Taboola
+28.2%
Malwarebytes
+26.0%
Largest % Mark-Down
Rubicon Global
-21.9%
Sweetgreen
-14.0%
JUUL Labs
-12.5%
The Honest Co
-7.0%
Largest Range in Reported Marks3
Lookout
14.4X
The Honest Company
3.3X
Tanium
1.4X
Sweetgreen
1.2X
Trend Reversal - Positive4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Clover Health
7
Allbirds
4
Coupang
3
Deliveroo
2
Trend Reversal - Negative5 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Sweetgreen
3
Rubicon Global
2
-
-
-
-
ZX Firm Bids at Greatest Premium to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Impossible Foods
+33.7%
Coursera
+6.6%
-
-
-
-
ZX Firm Offers at Greatest Discount to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Ripple
-72.6%
Circle
-53.6%
Wish
-45.6%
Reddit
-39.7%

*This report is based on data reported by 194 funds. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance.

1 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings
2 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
3 Range measured as Max Holding Value/Min Holding Value
4 Trend Reversal – Positive reflects companies marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
5 Trend Reversal – Negative reflects companies marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
6 Premium and Discount agnostic to share class

Commentary

We anticipate this January 31st, 2020 reporting period is the last before shareholders considered the exceptional global impact of COVID-19.

On average, private company holdings were marked up 4.4% this reporting period, leading to a 1.8% appreciation in tracked portfolios. DraftKings ($3.42-$4.09/share), Taboola ($27.91/share), and Deliveroo ($502.30/share) contributed the largest reported dollar gains, while JUUL ($120.83/share), Sweetgreen ($14.75-17.69/share), and Rubicon Global ($18.40/share) recorded the largest dollar losses.

DraftKings ($3.42-$4.09/share) led gainers, moving 42.5% higher in anticipation of its reverse merger into Diamond Eagle. Information and data security companies saw a strong quarter with both Tanium ($7.62-$10.86/share) and Malwarebytes ($21.50/share) making the top gainers list and Lookout ($0.54-$7.79/share) being modestly marked up as well. Notably, Lookout ($0.54-$7.79/share) preferred shares were marked narrowly at $7.77-$7.79/share, while common stock was valued significantly lower at $0.54/share.

Rubicon Global ($18.40/share) led mark-downs, moving 21.9% lower from its previous mark of $23.55/share and 31% lower from its median holding value of $26.64/share a year prior. While Sweetgreen ($14.75-17.69/share) saw one of the largest percentage mark-downs, it received mixed treatment this quarter with some holders marking up their holdings, leading to one of the largest ranges in holding values. JUUL ($120.83/share) holding values fell 12.5%, though ZX currently has Firm Offers at $86.00/share, almost 30% lower.

Clover Health ($3.83/share) rebounded modestly, gaining 17% this period after having been marked down 65% in the previous period.

ZX Market Updates Since Reporting Date

Since January 31st, 2020, ZX pricing levels have fallen as buyers and sellers work to price the impact of COVID-19 on companies and markets. As we noted in our last ZX Monthly Movers, investors continue to evaluate expected impact on a company-by-company basis, with significantly reduced valuations for firms more affected by novel coronavirus contrasting those maintaining pricing levels around (or in excess of) their last financings.

Current ZX Firm Offers provide a window to quantify some of the moves. ZX Firm Offers currently reflect an average 29% discount to last reported holding value, with companies like Wish ($146.96/share), Reddit ($36.47/share), and JUUL ($120.83/share) being offered at 45%, 40%, and 29% discounts, respectively.

Relative strength can be seen in larger private companies such as SpaceX ($214.00/share) and Stripe ($15.69/share), where demand is bolstered by investors looking for opportunistic entry points, as well as in enterprise software companies like Databricks ($42.95/share). Other areas of strength include edtech companies like Coursera ($11.34/share), where ZX currently houses Firm Bids at a premium to latest holding value.

Next month’s report will start yielding quantifiable insight into how institutional shareholders are reflecting broader market turbulence into their private company holding values.

What is a ZX Firm Order?

ZX Firm Orders are unique to ZX. A ZX Firm Order (Offer or Bid) is a form of contract accepted on ZX, that allows a buyer or seller to contractually commit themselves to trading at the terms of an order ticket should a bona fide counterparty be presented, or pay a fee set to 10% of the notional value of the transaction should they fail to transact. Zanbato developed the concept of a Firm Order for private stock trading to solve for frequent frustration that parties often hold themselves out as buyers or sellers, but then pull out of transactions when counterparties are presented.

Disclaimer

Zanbato Securites LLC (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information was believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.